Olympics: China's Medal Table Campaign Built on Sun Tzu's Theory and Sports School

Olympics: China's Medal Table Campaign Built on Sun Tzu's Theory and Sports School


The hosts hope to outdo the Americans by training youngsters to succeed where the US are traditionally weak, says Jonathan Watts
Around 500BC, in the world's seminal study on military strategy, Sun Tzu hit on a theory that continues to influence generals, businessmen and politicians to this day: direct confrontation is for losers.

"Those skilled in war subdue the enemy's army without battle ... They conquer by strategy," wrote the philosopher-general. "The key to victory," he said, was "to be so well prepared that direct warfare becomes unnecessary."

The Art of War may date back 2,500 years and be written by a semi-mythical figure, but Sun's precepts look set to get a fresh test over the next two weeks, when China's Olympic strategists put into practice a similar mix of asymmetrical tactics and long-term planning to overcome a more powerful opponent.

Once the Games start this weekend, the hosts are hoping to out manouevre the United States in a bid to top the gold medal table for the first time in Olympic history. But for all the talk of a sporting contest between the world's only superpower and its fastest rising rival, analysts say there will be very few direct confrontations.

"It's war by other means, and the Chinese have been very bright," said Francesco Liello, a reporter with La Gazzetta Dello Sport, who has covered three previous Olympics. "I have no doubt that China will get more gold medals than US, but they won't do it by going head-to-head with the US. They understand that they can't compete directly."

China has invested billions of dollars to build up its Soviet-inspired system of 3,000 sport-training schools and bringing in foreign coaches. But resources have been carefully targeted. While the US gets the vast majority of its gold medals from two sports - athletics and swimming - China has built up its strength in lower-profile and often less-competitive events. Its likely goldmines are shooting, weightlifting, diving, table-tennis, rowing and badminton, where the hosts will expect to top the podium in at least half the events.

Contests with the US will be few and far between - and mostly one-sided. The opening basketball game will match China with the US, but even with the recovery from injury of 2.26-meter tall superstar Yao Ming, the home team will have to pull off a miracle if they are to overcome the firepower of the NBA's finest.

The closest competitions between the two nations may come in diving, rowing and gymnastics. However, even in these sports the home team will put its strongest competitors in events where the US is weakest.

China's most likely medals on the track are in the women's long-distance events and the race-walks. The exception is the country's most famous athlete - 110m hurdler Liu Xiang, who will be defending an Olympic title that it was once thought no Asian could ever win. When Liu won in Athens, it prompted commentators to talk about a new era for China on the track, but outside the highly technical event of hurdling, there is little sign that the host will provide a serious rival to traditional US domination.

Huge resources have been focussed on diving, which is now so completely dominated by China that it has a slim chance of winning all eight golds. As in table-tennis and badminton, there will be almost no competition from the US.China, of course, is not the only nation to target "soft medals". Britain is often criticised because its tally is boosted by rowing, sailing and cycling.

But the host team is the product of long-term state planning. Almost the entire team comes from sports school, where some will have started training at the age of six. The most prestigious is Shichahai in central Beijing. Despite an unremarkable appearance, this small campus is an Olympic medal factory. Although it does not quite churn out champions like sausages, this single school produced as many gold medal winners in Athens as Spain, Canada and Turkey.

This year, a record eight of their alumni are expected to compete in sports ranging from gymnastics and table-tennis to taekwondo and volleyball. "China's way of training athletes has its advantages. Ninety-five per cent of national champions emerge through this system," said the vice principal, Shi Fenghua.

Students study for three hours every morning and train for three hours each afternoon. They are pushed hard and many drop out, but those that continue have a good chance of reaching the Olympics. Shi estimates that 30 out of the 3,000 students who have enrolled over the years have become champions in their fields. In Athens in 2004, four alumni - Luo Wei, Zhang Yining, Feng Kun and Teng Haibin - won golds.

There are several gyms, each adorned with a huge national flag to remind the young sportsmen what they are here for and who is paying. Wander the corridors and you can hear the squeak of training shoes on gym floors, the yells of taekwondo kickers and the clicking of hundreds of ping-pong balls rolling around long rows of tables.

The routine is tough, particularly for gymnastics where the training begins from the age of six. One young girl appeared close to tears as she was forced to do dozens of flips as punishment for failing to do a beam exercise to the satisfaction of her teacher.

The school's greatest strength is table-tennis - the sport that China dominates more than any other. In Athens it won three of the four golds up for grabs, including Zhang Yining - a Shichahai old girl - in the singles and doubles. The coaches and their students - some of whom are so young that the table comes up to their armpits - expect at least the same this time.

"No athlete would say 'I get too many gold medals, I'm tired of winning medals'," said Zeng Jiuxiang, one of the country's top coaches. "If you are an athlete, you must always want to win the gold medal to prove your strength."

Not everyone is as optimistic about the prospects for Olympic success. Mao Zhixiong, professor of sports psychology at Beijing Sports University, believes there are unrealistic expectations of success for the host team. "This is a hype created by the media," he said. "At Athens, it was a big surprise that China got more medals than Russia. We cannot surpass America in gold medals this time because we do not have the same economic power."

There is also a debate on whether the Soviet-style system should be continued. Critics say it is expensive and out-of-step with the times. But a big medal haul in Beijing would strengthen those in favor of maintaining the status quo. "There are academics who argue for reform. The reason it hasn't happened yet is the Olympics. If China does well, reform is likely to be delayed."